National Pollster Reveals CD-5 Race a Dead Heat

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Adam Graham
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National Pollster Reveals CD-5 Race a Dead Heat

Jena Nelson and Stephanie Bice Essential Tied, Race Within Margin of Error

POLLING RESULTS:

POLLING MEMO

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK (Sept. 23, 2026) – A new GBAO poll of Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District finds Jena Nelson tied with Representative Stephanie Bice at 48% once voters are educated about the candidates. 

On the initial question before informing respondents about each candidate, Nelson only trails by five points, within the margin of error. However, Nelson wins a majority of independents (55%) and is more popular than Bice, with favorables better than two to one (21% favorable, 9% unfavorable) while Bice is barely above water (39% to 38%). Among voters who know Nelson, she leads 61% to 30%.

“Every time I sit down with folks across this district, I hear the same thing: they want someone who shows up and listens,” Nelson said. “This poll tells me what I already know from directly engaging with voters. They’re ready for a change. We’re going to keep showing up in every corner of this district between now and November.”

The poll also finds Bice deeply unpopular with independents (20% favorable, 51% unfavorable) and Donald Trump underwater in a district voters say he carried by 13 points (42% favorable, 53% unfavorable). Democrats hold a clear enthusiasm edge, with 89% rating themselves a 10 out of 10 on motivation to vote in November, compared to 71% of Republicans. 

National polling firm GBAO surveyed 500 likely 2026 general election voters from September 17 to 20, 2026, by live telephone interviews and text to web. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The full polling memo is below.

Jena Nelson is a lifelong educator and the 2020 Oklahoma Teacher of the Year. Over more than 16 years in the classroom, she helped her students earn more than $4 million in scholarships. In 2022, she earned more statewide votes than any other Democrat as a candidate for State Superintendent and actually won within the recently gerrymandered CD-5. Jena and her husband Karl have been married for 21 years and are proud parents of two.

Learn more at JenaNelson.com.

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